Dollar strengthens against yen on uncertainty tied to Bank of Japan’s pace of tightening
The dollar rose against the yen on Monday to resume its recent rise after Japan’s top central bank official signaled that further tightening of monetary policy was coming, but was vague about the timing of any such rise.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the economy was moving toward sustained wage-driven inflation and warned against keeping borrowing costs too low, leaving open the possibility of another interest rate hike as soon as next month. These were his first comments on monetary policy since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election two weeks ago.
But Ueda gave no clues about whether an increase would occur in December, citing several “uncertainties” that needed to be examined.
“The governor of the Bank of Japan did not give any new signals,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.
“Due to the chaos caused in July, the market anticipates that [the] BoJ would better prepare the market for the next move and the Bank of Japan governor did not do that today, so I think the yen weakened.”
The BOJ unexpectedly raised short-term interest rates at its July meeting, triggering a wave of selling in markets linked to the recovery of the so-called yen carry trade.
The dollar strengthened 0.17% to 154.6 yen. On Friday, the dollar snapped a four-session rally against the Japanese currency after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that authorities would take action to combat excessive exchange rate movements.
The market was pricing in a roughly 54% chance of a quarter-point hike by the Bank of Japan at its next policy meeting on Dec. 19, little changed from before Ueda’s speech.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of currencies, fell 0.5% to 106.20, and the euro rose 0.54% to $1.0598. The index hit a more than one-year high last week of 107.07 and has been rising on expectations that a Trump victory could result in higher tariffs and potentially stoke inflation, slowing the path of the rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Two senior European Central Bank officials said on Monday they were more concerned about the damage new U.S. trade tariffs would do to economic growth in the euro zone than any impact on inflation.
Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have signaled that the central bank is being deliberate in its rate cutting path.
In a light week for U.S. economic data, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 46 this month, the highest level since April, from 43 in October on optimism that The recent elections would lead to regulatory changes that could stimulate the residential sector. construction.
Markets are waiting to find out who Trump will choose as Treasury secretary, and numerous media reports say the list of potential candidates has expanded to include former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and billionaire executive Marc Rowan.
“My sense is [markets are] looking at the appointments and even this discussion about the Treasury secretary, and wanting to be sure that the Treasury secretary endorses tariffs,” said Chandler.
Sterling strengthened 0.47% to $1.2674 after dropping 2.4% last week, its biggest weekly decline since early February 2023.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.82% to $90,114.00.
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